WGME Debate Highlights

You can watch the full debate here.

A couple of notable moments, aside from Collins' flip-flop on the Iraq surge:

At 8:27: Rep. Allen says, "[Collins] said that the President didn't manage the war well. But the truth is that Senator Collins didn't manage the war well either."

At 23:50: Allen's answer on taxes was about as cogent an argument for his position as anyone is likely to squeeze into a two-minute debate format.

Collins Flip-Flops on Surge

At this week's WGME debate, Sen. Collins called General Petraeus' surge strategy the "right strategy" for Iraq.

At 7:08:



Not sure I've heard that language before. And, of course, Collins nominally opposed the troop surge last year.

If you're not sufficiently confused yet, it's worth revisiting this video from a committee hearing on September 11, 2007 in which Collins questioned Petraeus:



It's not clear how much political progress Collins thinks Iraq has made over the last thirteen months. But the clear implication of her question is that she believed the absence of "significant political progress" by September 2008 would militate in favor of withdrawal.

And yet here we are in October and she still supports an indefinite occupation.

Who woulda thunk it?

WGME Debate

Maine Politics posts this news story on the WGME debate, which took place earlier this week:



We still haven't seen the full debate--still trying to track down video.

Where Is This Race?

Granted, my rolodex isn't exactly huge. But when I talk to smart people about this race, I'm struck by how little confidence they have about where it stands.

Don't get me wrong: Everyone thinks Sen. Collins is leading. Some think the margin is smaller and some think it's larger.

But the opinions of the careful observers I talk to aren't firm. And to a degree you wouldn't normally expect less than three weeks out, there's a reluctance to venture predictions.

There are two key reasons:

1. The financial crisis and looming recession: It shakes up the race and plays into Rep. Allen's narrative. But since a Wall Street meltdown just weeks before Election Day puts us in virtually uncharted territory, to what extent it boosts Allen is hard to predict.

2. Turnout: Everyone agrees that Republicans are dispirited about the campaign Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has run--and that they're dispirited in general.

And everyone believes that Sen. Barack Obama's (D-IL) ground game will be very strong--and that it's being supplemented effectively by the Maine Dems.

But will this lead to a once-in-a-generation turnout surge? Or just a modest increase? Will young voters and new voters come out in unprecedented numbers? Or is it mostly hype?

This is the real wild card in the Allen-Collins race. And I suspect it's a topic we won't have much insight into until the polls open.

Collins' Biggest Mistake?

Here's the clip:

LCV In Perspective

It's not clear what impact, if any, the national LCV's endorsement of Sen. Collins will have on the race given the thin case that was made for the move, and given that it's been rejected by organization officials on the ground in Maine.

But it needs to be said: The national organization's decision to back Sen. Collins represents a fundamental betrayal of its values and its members.

After all, members expect the League to support candidates with strong environmental profiles over those who've fallen short of the group's standards. That's the whole point of an endorsement.

So when the group's leadership does the reverse--backing the obviously weaker candidate--it draws the League's entire mission into question.

Also worth noting: This endorsement doesn't appear to be an attempt--as these things sometime are--to curry favor with a powerful lawmaker on the verge of re-election.

Remember, Susan Collins just isn't that powerful. And her re-election is far from assured: Given the current political landscape, which grows bleaker by the day for Republicans, there just hasn't been enough polling on the Maine race for anyone to know with confidence how things will turn out.

So this endorsement is almost certainly about something else: It looks very much like an attempt to reach out to Republican LCV donors, and to insulate the organization from criticism that it only backs Democrats.

(For the record, I'm still waiting for a return call from LCV's Washington D.C. office about its reasoning. I first contacted the organization for comment on the Senate race in Maine on May 9.)

Of course, LCV bills itself as a non-partisan organization. So it shouldn't be taking party affiliation into account in its endorsements. And the organization professes not to.

But it's hard to believe anything LCV says these days.

Collins vs. Collins

Sen. Collins has a surprisingly--stunningly--sane op-Ed in today's PPH about possible new regulations for Wall Street.

It's hard to make sense of the piece, but not because of anything it says. It's perplexing, instead, because the entire spirit and substance of its recommendation bear almost no resemblance to Collins' industry-friendly, GSE-scapegoating comments on the financial meltdown in the debates and in her campaign's statements.

So I really hope that the Susan Collins who wrote ("wrote"?) this op-Ed gets in touch with the Susan Collins we've been seeing on the campaign trail. She might learn a thing or two.

Allen: Collins Better Fit For Big Oil

From the Allen campaign:

Since Mainers re-elected Susan Collins on a promise to protect our air, water and scenic resources, Collins has instead voted against the environment and with the Bush Administration often enough to make us wonder whether her promise to show up for every vote is a promise or a threat.

After being dinged by the group for voting TWICE for the Bush Administration’s coastal drilling plan, [S. 3711, Vote #218, 7/31/06; S. 3711, Vote #219, 8/1/06; CQ, 8/1/06], three years after voting for the Bush-Cheney Energy Bill, [HR 6, Vote #213, 7/29/05] and four years after voting to slash funding to track down and prosecute polluters, [Senate roll call vote 58, 3/12/2004], the only people endorsing Collins should be the oil companies. [SCR 23, Vote #97, 3/25/03]

And in a way, the oil companies have, contributing more than $140,000 to Collins’ campaign.

LCV Breaks With Itself?

From the LCV's endorsement press release:

The non-partisan LCV National Environmental Scorecard is a nationally accepted yardstick used to rate Members of Congress on conservation and clean energy issues.

Nationally accepted--except, apparently, by LCV itself.

BREAKING: LCV For Collins

In a surprising move, the national LCV has endorsed Sen. Collins over Rep. Allen.

When asked about his organization's decision to back a candidate with a 68% lifetime rating who voted for the Cheney energy bill (which LCV called one of the most anti-environment bills in recent years) over a candidate with a 93% rating who opposed the Cheney bill, LCV spokesman Joshua McNeil paused for a solid seven seconds before stating: "I'm not an expert on this race."

After another pause, he rattled off a series of talking points about Collins' work on environmental issues over the last two years.

Even when pressed, he declined to comment on the discrepancy between Collins' 68% lifetime LCV rating and Rep. Allen's 93% score, or about their contrasting votes on the Cheney energy bill.

UPDATE: After declining to discuss the endorsement at any level of detail and promising a call back, McNeil e-mails a press release that does not mention Collins' vote for the 2005 energy bill or the yawning 25% gap in the lifetime ratings of the two candidates.

UPDATE UPDATE: To be clear, I don't mean to suggest above that I was timing McNeil's response or that I know for a fact that he paused for exactly seven seconds. It could have been six seconds or eight seconds.

What I might have said, instead, was that McNeil took an extended, unusually-long pause--so long that I felt compelled to ask if he was still on the line.

Reminder Time

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Obvious Questions

Sen. Collins professes to believe that "hyper-partisanship" has been at the root of the government's failures over the last eight years.

Not a failed Republican ideology. Not mismanagement. Not corruption.

Hyper-partisanship.

But if bipartisanship is as crucial as Sen. Collins makes it sound, why hasn't she stood together with Democrats and many Republicans against even one of the Bush administration's major initiatives?

And why did she stonewall her Democratic colleagues on the Homeland Security committee when they repeatedly reached across the aisle, imploring her to hold hearings on the Bush administration's corrupt, costly and dangerous Iraq war contracting practices?

Another Debate Thought

Sen. Collins continues to run on the strength of her (deceptive) moderate branding. And in yesterday's debate, she seemed to up the ante by citing "partisan rancor" as the key explanation for government's failures over the last eight years.

The implication, clearly, is that she's got what it takes to end the bickering.

This strikes me as a bizarre, tone-deaf re-election argument at a time when the nation is mired in two wars and the worst financial crisis in three generations.

But it's notable for another reason: The junior senator has no standing to make it.

First, consider: Collins has been talking about civility and comity for twelve years now. And Washington has become steadily more polarized over that period.

So clearly, her efforts thus far have been a total failure. What reason is there to think Collins will be more successful given another six years?

And second: When it comes to elevating the tone, Susan Collins has repeatedly been part of the problem.

Remember, this is a woman who took to the airwaves to allege that a former colleague had impregnated his mistress. And last year, she sponsored and circulated a hate video about her opponent.

In short, a paragon of civic virtue Susan Collins ain't.

Don't get me wrong: I understand why Collins doesn't want to talk about the issues. But she really should come up with a more plausible, compelling way to duck a discussion of them.

Today's Debate

You can watch the whole thing here.

Collins' Biggest Mistake? Cuba

From today's debate: Collins says her biggest mistake in Congress was in 1997 or 1998. And it was on Cuba.

She really said that. I swear.

Collins Q3: $1 Million

From the AP:

The figures to be filed with the Federal Election Commission show [Sen Collins] raised $1 million in the period that ended Sept. 30 and that she has $3.3 million in cash in hand.

That's about twice as much cash on hand as Rep. Allen.

Allen Q3: $1.0 Million

From Rep. Allen's campaign:

Fundraising receipts for the quarter totaled almost $1 million for a total of more than $5.7 million for the cycle for the period ending Sept. 30. The quarter's total was $995,688.75.

Cash on hand for the third quarter report was almost $1.7 million at $1,669,835.

Almost half of the contributions for the quarter came from Maine contributors at $483,311. The average contribution was $178.95 and the most common was $50. On-line contributors accounted for 25 percent of the quarter's total.

Chairman Mao Would Be Proud

It's hard to know where to begin with this piece of propaganda masquerading as a news article.

Suffice it to say that it's a great fit for a newspaper that, in recent days, has proven itself not just indifferent but actually corrosive to Maine's democracy.

Question of the Day

PPH is holding a debate tomorrow.

Since the paper's coverage has gone out of its way to avoid focusing on the substantive differences between the candidates--and Sen. Collins' record in particular--it will be interesting to see how the debate unfolds.

Will Collins be asked detailed questions about particular votes? Will she be forced to confront the specifics of her record? Or will it be yet another session dominated by generic, open-ended queries?

Lieberman Picks His Battles

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) is now defending Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) from charges that he dropped the ball on Iraq oversight during his tenure as the top Republican on the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations.

But as far as I can tell, Lieberman has refrained from mounting a parallel defense of Sen. Collins' tenure as chair of the Governmental Affairs Committee.

Of course, Lieberman was basically pleading with Collins to hold Iraq war contracting hearings all the way back in September 2003. And more than three years later--with the situation in Iraq having deteriorated and billions of dollars up in smoke--the junior senator had still taken no action.

So it would be hard for Lieberman to argue, credibly, that he approved of Collins' decision to sit on her hands.

But that hasn't exactly stopped him before.