Granted, my rolodex isn't exactly huge. But when I talk to smart people about this race, I'm struck by how little confidence they have about where it stands.
Don't get me wrong: Everyone thinks Sen. Collins is leading. Some think the margin is smaller and some think it's larger.
But the opinions of the careful observers I talk to aren't firm. And to a degree you wouldn't normally expect less than three weeks out, there's a reluctance to venture predictions.
There are two key reasons:
1. The financial crisis and looming recession: It shakes up the race and plays into Rep. Allen's narrative. But since a Wall Street meltdown just weeks before Election Day puts us in virtually uncharted territory, to what extent it boosts Allen is hard to predict.
2. Turnout: Everyone agrees that Republicans are dispirited about the campaign Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has run--and that they're dispirited in general.
And everyone believes that Sen. Barack Obama's (D-IL) ground game will be very strong--and that it's being supplemented effectively by the Maine Dems.
But will this lead to a once-in-a-generation turnout surge? Or just a modest increase? Will young voters and new voters come out in unprecedented numbers? Or is it mostly hype?
This is the real wild card in the Allen-Collins race. And I suspect it's a topic we won't have much insight into until the polls open.
2 comments:
"uncharted territory" why? allen should be be killing collins over this! how often did collins vote for deregulation? lack of oversight? how close was she to greenspan's opinions? did she vote to repeal glass-steagal or various other insane laws that broke down the barrior between banks and brokerages? why is allen losing? I'm an amazed non-maine resident.
I've been phone banking and canvassing out of the Lewiston-Auburn office for the last few months and the word is that we're making some real headway in the 2nd CD (for you out-of-staters, that's where the challenge is). I see doom and gloom everywhere on the web, but I suspect that this one may be a real sleeper and a big surprise to the pundit class.
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