The First Poll

Just minutes out of the starting gate, WMTW cites what it calls the first independent poll of the election: It shows Collins leading 57%-32% among likely voters.

Also notable is that Collins garners 65% of independents and 35% of Democrats.

These are good number for Collins--to be sure. But anyone who follows polls knows that they're not out of line with what you'd expect for a popular two-term incumbent facing a lesser-known rival.

The question is, will these numbers hold up as voters take a closer look at Allen. And at Collins.

UPDATE: Also of note in the poll? President Bush's approval rating in Maine is down to 20%, a new low. Approval of his Iraq policy is down to 22%.