The Big Picture

If you're Sen. Collins, you've got to be happy with where the race stands as we move into 2008.

According to the most recent public poll, you're 17 points ahead of your challenger and above the 50% threshold; your opponent's arguments haven't gained traction with the media; and even after seven years of near-unwavering support for the Bush administration's reactionary agenda, your reputation as a centrist remains more or less intact.

You've also raised plenty of money, and your corporate friends have signaled that they'll do what's necessary to keep you competitive.

On the other hand, most Mainers--and even most likely voters, I'd imagine--haven't really tuned into the 2008 senate race yet; your approval rating has dropped sharply over the last couple years; and it seems more likely than ever that energized Democrats will come out in force on election day.

Your positions on Iraq, tax cuts for the mega-rich, civil liberties and conservative judges also happen to be out of step with the preferences of your constituents.

In other words, it's your race to lose. But there are plenty of ways you could lose it.