New Poll: 7 Points

Via Daily Kos and TMB, a new Rasmussen poll is out:

Tom Allen (D): 42 (42) (38)

Susan Collins (R-inc): 49 (52) (54)

Numbers in parenthesis are from 5/14 and 4/1, respectively.

From Rasmussen's analysis:

Senator Susan Collins’ lead in her bid for reelection in Maine continues to fade...

Two months ago Collins led her Democratic challenger Tom Allen by 16 percentage points, but that spread fell to 10 points in May. Now her lead is down to seven points, 49% to 42%, dropping her below 50% for the first time and putting her among the Republican senators at risk this November. Incumbents who poll less than 50% are generally viewed as potentially vulnerable.

Collins' favorability rating has fallen as well for the third month in a row, but she is still is viewed favorably by a substantial majority of Maine voters (65%), down from 70% last month. By a nearly identical number, the incumbent’s unfavorables have risen from 29% in May to 33% now.

[...]

Collins...leads Allen by 14% among men but has just a two-point edge among women voters.

[...]

Among Democrats, Allen’s support has increased to 72% this month, up from 64% in May. Twenty-four percent (24%) still support Collins.

However, when it comes to unaffiliated voters, Collins leads 52% to 34%. These numbers represent a major improvement for the incumbent since last month when the two candidates were tied at 44%.

Well, shows what I know.

UPDATE: An 18 point swing to Collins among independents? That seems like noise, or a sampling error. We'll have to wait till next month to see whether the May or June number is the outlier.