Tuesday, October 7, 2008

A Simple Point

Some debate moderators and reporters think the most important thing to know about Sen. Collins and Rep. Allen is what each of them wants to do about health care, taxes and Iraq. But that's actually a terrible way to get at the choice in this race.

Because neither Susan Collins nor Tom Allen is going to be in a position to frame policy any time soon.

Remember, Susan Collins is a weak senator. And if she wins she'll almost certainly be in the minority. A victorious Tom Allen, by contrast, would be a majority senator with no seniority.

What's more, we'll have a new president in January. Whoever he is, he'll enter office with something approximating a popular mandate to enact his agenda.

So the real question is how Allen and Collins would vote on that agenda.

The real question, in other words, is whether Susan Collins will vote up or down on Sen. Barack Obama's (D-IL) tax plan and his universal health coverage plan. And whether she'll vote for Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) attempts to tax health insurance benefits and cut corporate taxes.

Tom Allen has been clear on these topics: It's pretty apparent, from his public comments, that he would support Obama on taxes, health care and Iraq while opposing McCain's policies in these three areas.

Collins, on the other hand, has been coy when these topics have come up. In the last debate she simply refused to answer about taxes.

But the history is pretty clear: Sen. Collins has had no problem supporting Republican tax policy, economic policy and Iraq policy over the last eight years. Yet she has resisted Democratic efforts in these areas, even when it put her on the right-wing fringe of the Republican party.

Is there's any reason to think that, having won another six year term, she'll change her tune?

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