Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Make It Twelve

Jonathan Crimmins is the chair of the Brunswick Republican Town Committee. And he's a candidate for the Maine House.

But you wouldn't know it from reading his letter in yesterday's PPH--a letter that just so happens to parrot one of the Collins camp's kookier talking points.

Funny, Crimmins was identified more accurately in a recent letter to his local paper.

(Maybe the Google is broken at PPH?)

The Crimmins letter marks at least the twelfth time in this campaign that a Collins-friendly letter has made its way into a Maine paper without a full identification of the Maine Republican official behind it.

Here's a question: Why do members of the state GOP apparatus seem to be nearly the only ones excited about the Collins candidacy?

Monday, July 21, 2008

McCain: I'll Ride Collins' Coattails

In his Maine Military Museum speech, he also said that:

"I have never been prouder to be in the company of two colleagues and friends as I am of these two great senators from the state of Maine."
More here.

Centrism Watch

As if in an effort to cram as many empty labels into his article as possible, Blethen reporter Dieter Bradbury references "mavericks"; "maverick"; "GOP moderates" and "independent thinkers" in this preview of Sen. John McCain's visit to Maine on Monday.

Naturally, the first two terms refer to McCain, whereas the latter two refer to Sen. Collins and her supporters.

Bradbury also allows Christian Potholm--whose loyalties you can pretty much discern by looking here--to pose as an independent analyst, and to invoke the legendary "moderate wing of the Republican party in Maine."

Wondering if Bradbury ever defines these terms, or cites any specific votes or other evidence to justify using them?

Come on, don't be silly.

McCain in Maine

Jessica Alaimo is live-blogging Sen. McCain's (R-AZ) visit to Maine.

She reports that Sen. Collins will give an introduction before McCain's speech at the Maine Military Museum in South Portland. That should be happening any minute now.

DSCC in for $5 Million

In comments, Hokie Guru points us (via Senate Guru) to this Advertising Age column, which includes the following nugget:

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has...made more than $15 million in buys in North Carolina, New Mexico, Minnesota and Maine, with the buys in Maine and North Carolina exceeding $5 million each. A committee official declined to comment.
Good to know. Still, the piece doesn't mention when the buys are for.

As we just noted, Allen is getting pummeled with misleading vitriol right now--and from multiple angles. So far, no money is being spent to counter the attacks from Sen. Collins' allies.

The Big Picture

If you're wondering where this race stands, consider: An anti-union front group has a nasty, misleading attack ad on the airwaves in support of Sen. Collins; another corporate-backed, astroturf organization is slamming Rep. Allen via robocall.

And the National Republican Senatorial Committee has launched a guilt-by-association Allen attack site.

The junior senator has yet to repudiate any of it.

Clearly, Collins and her big money friends are taking nothing for granted. This brings to mind two thoughts.

First, this is shaping up to be the kind of campaign that political junkies savor: There's a huge amount at stake, there are stark difference between the candidates on the issues and there's big money in the background, desperate to influence the outcome.

It's the kind of campaign that serious, motivated journalist live for.

Too bad there don't seem to be any media organizations in Maine hospitable to that kind of journalism.

Second, as great as it is to see rich Republicans exercising their right to weigh in on all their pet issues, the one-sided nature of the conversation is starting to get a bit disconcerting.

After all, the senate Democrats are flush with cash. So what rainy day are they saving it for?

Saturday, July 19, 2008

A Troubling Pattern at PPH

Portland Press Herald's coverage of the Allen-Collins race fits a troubling pattern: Poll numbers that show Collins leading by wide margins--even when those results are out of date or from partisan sources--are played up; and timely results that suggest a closer race are ignored.

The facts:

There have been eight public polls on the Allen-Collins race this year.

Three came from Republican firms; four are from Rasmussen, a national polling outfit; and one was conducted by Pan Atlantic, a local company.

Results have ranged from a 25 point advantage for Collins all the way down to a seven point spread (twice).

Here's a chronology of PPH's coverage of the various polls.

--April 2: The anti-union Coalition for a Democratic Workplace releases a poll conducted several weeks earlier by a Republican pollster showing a 23 point lead for Sen. Collins. At PPH's political blog Political Extra, reporter Jonathan Kaplan publishes a post detailing the results.

--April 8: Rasmussen releases a poll taken a week earlier showing a safe 16 point advantage for Collins. Kaplan posts a summary of the results at Political Extra.

--May 16: Rasmussen releases a poll conducted two days earlier that shows a relatively narrow ten point spread between Sen. Collins and Rep. Allen. This is the narrowest advantage yet for Collins. PPH makes no mention of the poll in its newspaper or on its website.

--June 18: Rasmussen releases a poll conducted two days prior showing a narrow seven point margin in Collins' favor. PPH makes no mention of the poll in its newspaper or on its website.

--June 24: On its website, PPH publishes the results of a six week old poll sponsored by the GOP-aligned US Chamber of Commerce showing a 14 point lead for Collins.

The poll, released six days earlier, was conducted by a Republican polling firm. It has a larger margin of error and a smaller sample size than the Rasmussen poll released on the same day.

--July 8: Pan Atlantic releases a poll showing Collins ahead by a 25 point margin. This is the largest margin of any poll all year, including polls by Republican pollsters. PPH publishes results on its website as a "news update" reported by Dieter Bradbury.

--July 9: Despite the fact that its data is a full month old, PPH features a story on the Pan Atlantic poll on page A1 in print editions. The 727 word piece runs under the headline, "Poll finds solid lead for Collins in Maine."

It isn't until the seventh paragraph that the piece acknowledges that the poll is a month old. It isn't until the twelfth paragraph that the article contrasts the 25 point Pan Atlantic spread with the seven point margin in the Rasmussen poll from the identical time frame.

--July 18: Rasmussen releases a two day old poll which duplicates the seven point lead for Collins from its June survey. PPH doesn't run a "news update" on its website; it doesn't mention the poll in the next day's paper.

So what exactly is going on here? Why has PPH repeatedly featured partisan surveys and stale data while completely disregarding current, non-partisan polling?

The Rasmussen result from April showing a 16 point spread clearly rose to the level of "news." So why did the company's results mysteriously slip off of PPH's radar when the margin shrunk in later polls?

And how does PPH justify putting an outlier of a poll--with month-old data--on its front page when for nearly two months it failed to even mention equally salient, far more timely results?

As of this writing, PPH Managing Editor Bob Crider had not responded to an early Saturday e-mail requesting comment.

The Green Light

Collins spokesman Kevin Kelley knows perfectly well that there's a big difference between denouncing third party ads in the abstract and rejecting a particular, egregious ad campaign by an ally.

His 'Collins has always maintained' formulation tells us all we need to know about the junior senator's current attitude toward smear attacks from anti-union, corporate-backed front groups: She's got no real problem with them.

Friday, July 18, 2008

New Poll: 7 Points

If Rasmussen was spooked into changing its formulas by the lopsided Pan Atlantic poll, there's no sign of it in their latest results:

Tom Allen (D): 42 (42) (42) (38)

Susan Collins (R-inc): 49 (49) (52) (54)

We're talking zero movement from last month's numbers.

UPDATE: At Pollster.com and elsewhere, some commentators are characterizing the result as a ten point advantage for Collins--because Rasmussen lists a breakdown including leaners (53-43) with the poll.

But since Rasmussen has never included leaners before--and I'm still not sure why they did this time--I think it makes more sense to stick with the raw numbers. Which puts things at 49-42.

Andrews: Collins Should Denounce EFAC

Apparently our friends at the Employee Freedom Action Committee have a new hard-hitting, fact-challenged radio attack ad of questionable taste up on the airwaves. Here's the transcript, according to the Allen camp:

[Man's Voice]

"Since 2001, one group has been involved in embezzlement and racketeering, and been the target of more than 2000 criminal investigations, and 600 indictments. Now the same group is planning to expand its power base. Who has this record of corruption and embezzlement? Organized Crime? No. It's organized labor."

[Woman's voice]

Today labor bosses have a new scheme to target you and your money. They want to change the law to make it easier to pressure you into joining their union. Under their plan, you will lose your right to a private vote. Instead of being able to make your choice about joining a union using a private ballot, union bosses can come to your home to pressure you to make a binding decision to pay dues.

Incredibly, they say this is a better process than a private vote.

Tell Tom Allen to stop supporting union schemes to take away private votes at EmployeeFreedom.org.

Paid for by the Employee Freedom action committee.
So all unions are "one group"? And Rep. Allen wants to allow "union bosses [to] come to your home to pressure you?"

Do they really think Mainers are this dumb?

And do they really think it makes sense to tar all unions as worse than the mafia?

Anyway, here's the Allen camp's response:

We believe this ad has no place in this campaign, and we denounce it. To accuse hard-working Mainers of being aligned with organized crime and to suggest Congressman Allen is protective of organized crime is not only false and negative, but personally destructive...

Today we once again ask Susan Collins to join us in denouncing radio and tv ads by third parties such as Employee Freedom and its affiliates who name or reference either candidate in negative communications.
It would also be interesting to know if Collins shares the group's view that, as a rule, unions are basically criminal enterprises...

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Astroturf--With Video

As we've noted, Sheldon Adelson--the third richest man in America--thinks card check for labor unions is one of the top two threats to civilization.

So it's no wonder that out-of-state, anti-union front groups fueled by anonymous donations are spending money to defeat union-friendly candidates in Maine.

And with the fate of civilization riding on the rejection of card check legislation, it's not surprising that those groups would be willing to distort the issues involved.

But congratulations to Chellie Pingree, who handles a card check ambush deftly--in this case, from the misnamed Employee Freedom Action Committee:



More deception-riddled videos here.

Meanwhile, Sen. Collins pledged to shun support from outside attack groups back in May. And yet there's still no word from her about the push poll, the robocalls or the YouTube ambushes...

Send It In

A couple of strong letters in yesterday's papers.

If we haven't been clear enough: The reason we spend so much time documenting pro-Collins astroturf efforts is that published letters--particularly well-researched, fact-based letters--can be very effective means of persuasion.

So if you live in Maine and want to help puncture some of the myths that have cropped up about Sen. Collins, one valuable thing you can do is drop your local paper a line.

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Portrait of a Tycoon

Yesterday's Wall Street Journal had this investigative profile of Sheldon Adelson, the high roller behind Freedom's Watch.

You'll remember that the loosely-regulated, third-party group was recently lobbing pro-Collins robocalls into Maine--and may still be. (Collins still hasn't repudiated the tactic.)

But would it surprise you to learn that Adelson has also dropped $28,500 on the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which is already spending money to get Collins re-elected?

Didn't think so.

And would you believe that Adelson has declared card check for labor unions, "one of the two fundamental threats to society"--the other one being radical Islam--at the same time that anti-union astroturf groups are flooding the Maine airwaves with pro-Collins, anti-union ads?

Talk about coincidences...

UPDATE: Lefty bloggers hit back?

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Centrism Watch

This is pretty funny.

In their quest to canonize Sen. Collins as a "moderate" the reporters of this ABCNews.com piece reach all the way back to a single vote in 2003--against banning "partial birth" abortion--to justify the characterization.

Of course, Collins voted for the nomination of Samuel Alito. And he cast the deciding vote to uphold the ban, which the Court had previously struck down.

But the article's authors didn't see fit to include that minor detail.

MEA Endorses Allen

Rep. Allen has won the backing of the 25,000 member Maine Education Association, which represents teachers, college professors and other education staffers.

The endorsement would have been a real plum for Sen. Collins. And the junior senator seems to have campaigned for the MEA's nod. But it was not to be:

"It is time for a change in policy toward our public schools, and Tom Allen is best suited to work for that change in the United States Senate representing Maine," said MEA President Chris Galgay.

"His views are closest to the hearts of educators and his record of support for our issues is outstanding. He is committed to giving teachers the respect they deserve and the time and resources they need to do their job well," Galgay added.

Monday, July 14, 2008

Questions From Away

Hmm.

Looks like Sen. Collins has time to talk to The New York Times about inside-the-beltway politics. And just last week she fit in a panel discussion at a Washington think tank.

But she seems not to have taken unscreened questions from adult Mainers in an open forum for well over a year.

Of course, she is a bipartisan across-the-aisle moderate centrist. So maybe that makes it okay.

Collins Q2: $1.1 Million

From PolitickerME:

Total raised last quarter: $1,056,469

Total raised: $6.5 million

Cash on hand: $5.1 million
That's just slightly more than Rep. Allen raised for the quarter.

As the Collins camp notes, the junior senator retains a $2 million cash-on-hand advantage.

But with these latest figures, it's as clear as ever that this race will be decided by something other than dollars.

Calling it Both Ways

Ben Goodman of Kennebunk has a letter in today's PPH critiquing Sen. Collins. Is this the same Ben Goodman who's on the Maine State Democratic Committee? The same one PPH wrote about a few weeks ago?

Would it be so hard for Maine newspaper editors to fire up the Google every now and then, and to include affiliations of party leaders with their letters?

It's worth noting that this is the first under-identified letter from a member of the Democratic party apparatus I've spotted this entire cycle. And Goodman's comments are issues-driven in a way few of the Collins-friendly missives have been.

But come on, folks.

Allen Q2: $1.0 Million

From the Allen camp:

The Allen campaign reported a second quarter total of $1,000,874.84 with cash on hand at $3,128.080.99. Individual contributors accounted for 75 percent of the quarter's total while PAC contributions were less than 25 percent.

Of Allen's 4,587 contributions for the quarter more than half, or 2,586 came from new contributors. The most common contribution was $100, closely followed by $25.
That's more than the $700,000 Rep. Allen raised last quarter.

Saturday, July 12, 2008

Sen. Collins' 4th of July

From the Collins camp:

Friday, July 11, 2008

Centrism Watch

NECN parrots Sen. Collins' "moderate" talking point; allows an "expert" to parrot it; and then sits down with the junior senator so viewers can hear it straight from the horse's mouth.



Naturally, nowhere in the report is the characterization backed up with facts. At no time does correspondent Marnie Maclean explain how a senator who has backed literally every single one of President Bush's major priorities can be characterized as "a moderate voice."

And to those who would defend the piece by noting that Rep. Allen is given a chance to question Collins' moderate credentials, we'd note that three-against-one isn't exactly fair and balanced.

Especially when the outnumbered party has the facts on his side.

UPDATE: Gerald has more.

Quote of the Day

From Village Soup:

"Today, Sens. Collins and [Olympia] Snowe voted to eliminate the Fourth Amendment right to privacy for Americans' telephone and Internet communications," said Shenna Bellows, executive director of the Maine Civil Liberties Union. "We are deeply disappointed that our two Senators voted to cover up past surveillance abuses and give a blank check to the president for future spying."

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Dead Fish Deserve Better

BDN runs an op-Ed so vacuous it's beyond parody.

Seriously, folks: There are plenty of elementary schools that publish newspapers with more incisive content than this. (And Sen. Collins has visited most of them.)

Maine, Year Zero

Sen. Collins has an op-Ed today in Foster's (her second this week?) with all the usual talking points on energy independence.

We've written before about the junior senator's timid approach to the energy crisis, one that won't come anywhere near solving the core problems.

But this piece gets our attention for a different reason: Reading it, you could be forgiven for concluding that the energy debate had no recent history; it's hard to get to the end without wondering what Collins, a member of the Senate majority for most of the last eight years, has been doing to tackle the issues.

And if you didn't know better, you'd be surprised to learn that the junior senator backed the Cheney energy bill, which lathered on subsidies for oil and gas companies while increasing mandates for ethanol use.

If Collins was working to reform US energy policy before her re-election campaign began, she sure was quiet about it.

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Incoming

Gerald is hearing about pro-Collins robocalls being made by a group founded to help defend the Bush administration's Iraq policies.

If you know something, drop us a line.

A GOP Favorite

Notable but not surprising that Sen. Collins is the top recipient of funds from the campaigns and PACs of other elected officials.

She is, after all, a Republican team player. And she's got GOP friends in high places.

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

More on the Pan Atlantic Poll

Looking through the data, a couple of things jump out immediately.

First, the poll produced a downright eccentric result in the presidential match-up: Sen. Obama (D-IL) over Sen. McCain (R-AZ) by 46% to 32% including leaners. There aren't many other statewide independent polls that have found such a large chunk of the electorate unwilling to commit to Obama or McCain.

Also of note: While the poll was released today, some of the data is as much as one month old. And even the newest data is three weeks old.

Neither of these factors invalidates the poll in any way, or suggests its results should be shrugged off.

But it certainly seems that Pan Atlantic has their own way of doing things.

New Poll: 25 Points (?)

Via PPH, we get wind of a new poll from Portland-based Pan Atlantic SMS Group:

Rep. Tom Allen (D): 31

Sen. Susan Collins (R): 56

(Via e-mail, Patrick Murphy, president of Pan Atlantic confirms that the poll is "strictly independent.")

Hard to reconcile this result with Rasmussen's seven point spread. But most of the discrepancy seems traceable to Collins' substantial support from the left in the poll: 39% of Dems versus 24% according to Rasmussen.

If Collins is really favored by 39% of Democrats, as the poll suggests, Allen is obviously toast. But that number seems a bit far-fetched to me.

Alito: Sheridan v. DuPont

(This is the third in our series of posts on Justice Samuel Alito. Read the first two posts here and here.)

When we last encountered Samuel Alito, he'd just become Deputy Assistant to Attorney General Edwin Meese after having written a job application memo characterizing his opposition to Warren Court precedents and Roe v. Wade as touchstones of his legal philosophy.

In 1987, Alito left the Attorney General's office to become a United States Attorney in New Jersey, and in 1990 he was nominated by President Bush to a seat on the US Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit.

He remained on the Third Circuit for 16 years, writing hundreds of opinions along the way. And, needless to say, his tenure on the court provides ample evidence of his legal approach.

When Alito was nominated to the Supreme Court, many of these cases should have been--and were--red flags to senators evaluating his record. And perhaps a dozen of his opinions received significant media scrutiny.

We'll look at just three of his most important and salient opinions, on the assumption that these three would surely have made it onto the radar of Sen. Collins and her staff in the weeks leading up to the Alito vote.

Here we'll tackle Sheridan v. DuPont. We'll look at two other cases in later posts.

Sheridan v. DuPont [link]

The background: Barbara Sheridan, an employee of the Hotel DuPont, accused the company of sex discrimination for failing to promote her; and for then making her life miserable and demoting her because of her complaints.

The question: One issue in the case was how much proof of employer misconduct a plaintiff should be required to produce to avoid having her case thrown out.

Should it be enough, for example, for a plaintiff to cast doubt on a defendant's story? Or should an accuser need explicit evidence of discrimination in order for the case to be heard?

As Yale Law professor Robert Gordon explains:

This sounds like a technical quarrel, but it's not. Employees can rarely prove intentional discrimination directly, because companies don't keep records with smoking guns in them. Courts have to infer discrimination--and giving fake evidence about why someone is fired, under traditional law, is enough to get the case past dismissal.
The decision: Ten of the court's eleven members--including eight Republican appointees--embraced what Gordon calls the "traditional law" conception, citing a Supreme Court precedent which noted that, "there will seldom be 'eyewitness' testimony as to the employer's mental processes." They found that when doubt about a defendant's story has been raised, the case should go to trial.

But not Alito. In a lonely 7248 word dissent that argued for a more complicated standard than the one adopted by the court, he rejected the "doubt" threshold as too low in some instances. He maintained, instead, that just because an employer has made up a story doesn't mean a plaintiff should get a day in court.

In short, his argument seemed designed to give lying employers a second, fallback path to a quick legal victory; the other ten judges were making it too easy for discrimination claims to be heard.

The reaction: A post-nomination Alito profile from Knight Ridder noted that, "Alito's interpretation [in Sheridan v. Dupont] would have led to a fundamental change in the way sex discrimination claims are handled and would have conflicted with what Congress intended when it enacted anti-discrimination laws."

Business Insurance, an insurance industry trade publication opened its analysis of the Alito nomination by forecasting:

If what's past is prologue, US Appeals Court Judge Samuel A. Alito Jr.'s elevation to the Supreme Court could be good news indeed for employers.
The article quoted experts on both sides of the Alito nomination agreeing that, in the context of Sheridan v. Dupont and other cases, "employers likely face a more sympathetic ear given Judge Alito's generally pro-government, pro-business views."

The Alliance for Justice complained about Alito's "cramped" reading of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. NOW concluded that Sheridan made it clear Alito, "would add difficult evidentiary hurdles for women who sue for sex discrimination."

The AFL-CIO cited the case as key evidence in concluding that, "Alito has consistently sided against working Americans."

And so forth.

If Sen. Collins has ever weighed in on Alito's Sheridan v. Dupont dissent, we're not aware of it.

UPDATE: Worth noting that, ultimately, the Supreme Court unanimously rejected Alito's position--and embraced the "traditional law" conception--in Reeves v. Sanderson Plumbing Products in 2000.

Monday, July 7, 2008

Maine on Their Minds

Gerald discovers a mysterious confluence, and asks a pertinent question.

Worth adding that the answer could be simple: All 26 people may have attended a fundraiser together, for example.

That would be easy enough for a reporter to determine.

Sunday, July 6, 2008

Quote of the Day

Sen. John Ensign (R-NV):

If you have an R in front of your name, you better run scared.
He runs the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Thursday, July 3, 2008

Question Time

After flagging a fresh piece of Collins-friendly astroturf, Gerald wants to know how many pro-Collins letters published in Maine papers over the last couple years were written by unidentified or under-identified members of the Maine GOP apparatus.

Having now looked back through our archives, the answer appears to be no fewer than eleven:

One and two.

Three.

Four.

Five.

Six.

Seven.

Eight.

Nine.

Ten.

Eleven.

Wow.

Collins Two-Term Pledge Video

We've long known there was audio of Sen. Collins making her two-term pledge. But until a couple minutes ago, we weren't sure that any video existed:



The language here, it's worth adding, is about as categorical as you can get.

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

We're Number Four?

Mike Lux, a prominent, well-connected progressive blogger (we first encountered him here) thinks Allen-Collins is the fourth most important non-presidential race in the country.

Is this the consensus view inside the beltway? (You wouldn't think so from reading here.) Is this why Sen. Collins is complaining that Mainers are too poor to bankroll her campaign?

In the coming months, can we expect to see the uptick in national party, campaign committee and outsider activity that you'd expect in such a critical race?

Stay tuned.

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Tax Dollars at Work?

It's late and we'll be traveling tomorrow, so it'll be a while before we have a chance to get more details. But--trust us--check this out:



Then read about the people behind it here and here.

A few questions that come to mind:

--These guys seem like a lot of fun (and straight out of a Wes Anderson movie). But do they have any track record building battlefield equipment?

--On what basis does the $3 million grant to the Howe brothers make sense as a taxpayer investment?

--What account did the Collins-funneled $3 million grant come out of?

--If the "Rip Saw" (elsewhere spelled "ripsaw") is a really a battlefield prototype--let alone a candidate for use by special operations--does it make sense to publicize it on television and publish detailed photos of it on the web?

--Does Sen. Collins' embrace of the Rip Saw say anything about her commitment to rooting out waste, fraud and abuse in military contracting?

Developing...

Centrism Watch

Jessica Benton Cooney writes the following over at Congressional Quarterly:

Supporters of two-term Maine Sen. Susan Collins, a Republican moderate, say she is in a good position to rebuff the serious challenge she is receiving this year from six-term Democratic Rep. Tom Allen...

Collins, like senior Maine Republican Sen. Olympia J. Snowe, fits the mold of the kind of centrist Republican who can still draw strong support from state voters.
The article goes on for 1309 words.

But does it ever justify the use of the "moderate" label? Does it marshal any evidence to support the view that Collins is a "centrist" or that her record is pretty much the same as Sen. Snowe?

Cooney doesn't see the need to. Because everyone just knows that Collins is a different kind of Republican. It's not up for debate--it's just part of the fabric of things.

Of course, a reporter interested in the facts might discover that the case for characterizing Collins as a moderate is exceedingly thin.

Such a journalist would quickly learn that the junior senator has voted for every single one of President Bush's top priorities over the last seven-plus years, even as Snowe has repeatedly crossed Bush.

But digging out these facts would require the boring, difficult work of analysis and research. It would require checking one's preconceptions and letting the chips fall where they may.

And it would require ignoring the posturing and pronouncements and focusing on substance.

I always thought that was what reporters like Cooney were hired to do. But when I started writing about this race, I thought a lot of things that I'm not convinced of anymore.

"Olympia Snowe Republicans"

University of Maine Professor Mark Brewer coins a new term in the fresh issue of York Weekly. And he's onto something.

Don't get us wrong: In this blog's first post, we argued that Sen. Snowe has done more than her share of Bush-enabling over the years. And we still believe that.

But Maine's senior senator has carved out a niche as that rare Republican who is willing--at least occasionally--to buck the Bush administration when it counts.

Listening to the Maine media (or what's left of it) you'd assume that Sen. Collins is a prime, even quintessential, example of Olympia Snowe Republicanism. But the facts tell a different story:

--Only one of Maine's senators has opposed setting an Iraq withdrawal timeline.

--Only one Maine senator supported President Bush's irresponsible 2003 tax cut package for the rich.

--Only one Maine senator voted for the habeas-shredding Military Commissions Act of 2006 and then against reinstating habeas corpus in a later bill.

--And only one Maine senators opposed an airline passengers bill of rights, $200 billion in food stamps and extending tax breaks for alternative energy.

These were all critical votes on matters of pressing importance. On the line were core national priorities, fundamental legal protections and American lives. And a few of them were at the very top of President Bush's agenda.

Snowe found a way to side with the interests of Maine and the nation even though it meant standing up to the leader of her party.

Collins chose a different path.

Of course, the junior senator might argue that--far from voting to enable a radical, dangerous President--it just so happened that on each of these votes she agreed with George W. Bush on the merits. That's an argument I'd be eager to hear.

In the meantime, don't let anyone tell you that Maine's two senators are two peas in a pod.

It just ain't true.

Monday, June 30, 2008

Quote of the Day

Sen. Susan Collins:

"I represent a state that has very limited income and only a small number of people who are able to help me financially...Having my colleagues be willing to host fundraisers for me in their states is a big help."
CQ Weekly reports that Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) used his donor list to fill a Tennessee fundraiser for Collins and that Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) held a Washington D.C. fundraiser for the junior senator earlier this month.

Sunday, June 29, 2008

Quote of the Day

Karen Hanretty, communications director for the National Republican Congressional Committee:

"This is a challenging environment," she said. "Any Republican running for office has to run basically on an independent platform, localize the race and not take anything for granted. There are no safe Republican seats in this election."
(Via Daily Kos.)

Saturday, June 28, 2008

Quote of the Day

State Chairman of the Maine Republican Party Mark J. Ellis:

Our next president will likely be making appointments to SCOTUS and, now more than ever, we need justices like Alito, Roberts, Scalia, and Thomas.

Friday, June 27, 2008

Stat of the Day

We've received three eNewsletters from Sen. Collins since last June, including one that hit our inbox on Wednesday.

The word "Iraq" hasn't appeared in any of them.

Thursday, June 26, 2008

And That Leaves...?

Gerald flags the news that Blethen Newspapers (which owns Portland Press Herald, the Kennebec Journal, and the Morning Sentinel) is letting go more reporters. Including, apparently, all the scribes on the politics beat:

Al Diamon is reporting on his blog that Blethen Newspapers is laying off more staff, this time including their three political reporters, Jonathan Kaplan, Paul Carrier, and Kevin Wack...

It is unclear just who will be covering political events throughout southern Maine.
Jeepers.

We've had our issues with Blethen coverage from time to time. But this is still pretty terrible news.

Pot, Kettle, Astroturf, Etc.

A letter from Joe Bruno of Raymond in the PPH:

It is obvious to me and many others that there is a calculated and organized letter-writing campaign trying to denigrate a fine U.S. senator like Susan Collins. This is the work of national organizations like moveon.org [sic]...

[...]

As a selectman in Raymond, when we needed help with a federal issue, Sen. Collins' office responded quickly and intervened to address the issue. That's more than I can say about our representative...

Please join me in rejecting negative campaigning by voting for Sen. Collins and keep our highly respected Sen. Collins in the U.S. Senate.
Yes, the usual baseless charges and manufactured indignation.

But get a load of this coincidence: Not only is this guy's name Joe Bruno. There's also a former Maine House Republican Leader and state Republican Party Chair named Joe Bruno! And both Joe Brunos hail from Raymond!

What are the chances?

Maybe the next time a GOP bigwig writes in with a cut-and-paste version of the Collins camp's talking points, PPH will insist on a full identification. But I'm not holding my breath.

UPDATE: I'm afraid I may have been a bit too coy above: Let's be clear about what's going on here.

I try to read as many letters to the editor in Maine papers as I can. And over the last year or so, there have been no fewer than eight pro-Collins letters published in Maine papers written by unidentified or under-identified members of the Maine GOP apparatus.

(By contrast, I've spotted literally only a handful of pro-Collins letters that don't seem to be connected to party elites.)

So what we have here is a former House leader and state party chair complaining about a stealth, calculated negative letter writing campaign as part of what appears to be a stealth, calculated negative letter writing campaign.

Blogger Josh Marshall calls this, "up-is-downism." I'll just note that it's a lot easier to get away with sliming your opponent if you can make it sound like he slimed you first.

Constituents

As we've often noted, Sen. Collins seems to have an aversion to answering questions from Maine voters: How else to explain the fact that she hasn't stood before adult Mainers in an open forum for (as far as we can tell) more than 16 months?

Well, there's news. The junior senator is slated to participate in a public panel--and to answer audience questions--on July 11. So mark your calendars!

One caveat: The event starts at 9am, so you'll want to hit the road early. Very early. Y'know what? It might make sense to forget about sleeping the night before.

That's right. What just might be the best (only?) chance between now and election day for average Mainers to pose a question to Sen. Collins is taking place at an elite Washington D.C. think tank 495 miles from the Maine border.

Of course, there could well be Q & A opportunities down the line. But I wouldn't bet on it.

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

BDN Plays Politics

The raging lefties at BDN have now joined their hippie friends at PPH in condemning the FISA legislation that the Collins campaign is touting.

The BDN editorial characterizes the Senate version as, among other things, "premature" and an affront to states' rights.

Pretty remarkable that just about everyone but Sen. Collins is playing politics on this issue.

Quote of the Day

Chris Powell, managing editor of the Connecticut-based Journal Inquirer and a one-time Republican state senate candidate:

For mistaking symptoms for causes, it would be hard to outdo U.S. Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman, I-Conn., and U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, with their proposal to prohibit pension funds and government agencies from investing in commodities...

In seeking to prohibit pension funds from investing in commodities...Lieberman and Collins would punish not just supposed speculators but also ordinary working people, whose pension fund investments in commodities may be the only practical way for them to protect themselves against dollar devaluation.

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

The Politics of Speculation

For some time now, Sen. Collins' most conspicuous and forceful response to the energy crisis has been to blame speculators for the run-up in gas prices. And today she and Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) are holding a hearing on the impact of speculation.

Now, we've never taken a single course in economics--so we're out of our depth here. But when Paul Krugman and the editorial page of The Wall Street Journal both think an idea is nonsense, it gets our attention.

Here's Krugman on energy speculation:

A futures contract is a bet about the future price. It has no, zero, nada direct effect on the spot price...

Any effect on the spot market has to be indirect: someone who actually has oil to sell decides to sell a futures contract to Joe Shmoe, and holds oil off the market so he can honor that contract when it comes due; this is worth doing if the futures price is sufficiently above the current price to more than make up for the storage and interest costs.

As I've tried to point out, there just isn't any evidence from the inventory data that this is happening.
Here's the Journal:
Every dogma has its day, and so it is with the posturing that blames the run-up in oil prices on "speculators." The new political consensus is that further "common-sense regulation" of the energy futures market is necessary. Let's grant that the sentiment is common, but the sense--like the evidence--is nonexistent.

[...]

The futures market may be a convenient scapegoat, but it's simply a price discovery mechanism. Major energy consumers--refiners, airlines--buy and sell these contracts to lock in goods at a future price, as a hedge against volatility...
Is the case against blaming speculators really as airtight as this? It can't be.

Because that would mean Sen. Collins was, well, playing politics. And as we all know, that could never happen.

Quote of the Day

The Portland Press Herald, in an editorial lambasting the FISA "compromise":

Even if the government asks you to break a law, the law still exists. Lawsuits that would have probed whether the companies knowingly complied--despite having legal departments that are well aware of what they are allowed to turn over without a warrant--will now conveniently go away.
Guess they're playing politics too.

Monday, June 23, 2008

Collins to MPBN: No Comment

Gerald flags a report from MBPN on Sen. Collins' role in the Iraq war contracting mess.

There's little new in the piece, but this is striking:

For the duration of the election cycle, MPBN is asking candidates to personally respond to remarks directly voiced by their opponents. Sen. Collins did not do so for this story.
Given a prime opportunity to explain her decision to forego oversight of Iraq contracting by a major media outlet, the junior senator instead chooses silence.

After trotting out four different talking points to justify her inaction, this approach is perhaps the most telling.

It speaks volumes.

Collins Slams Allen on FISA

Collins camp internet czar Lance Dutson posts a press release from the campaign under the title, "TOM ALLEN VOTES (AGAIN) TO JEOPARDIZE THE SAFETY OF AMERICAN PEOPLE." And it gets better:

Congressman Tom Allen chose politics over the safety and security of the American people by voting Friday with a small minority against a bipartisan compromise that would modernize the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, or FISA
A couple of points.

First, we're beginning to see a pattern from the Collins folks where any vote, action or suggestion they disagree with is condemned as "politics." Sen. Collins wants everyone to think of her (facts be damned) as some kind of transcendent, non-partisan figure. And so the argument seems to be that anyone who disagrees with her is, ipso facto, playing politics.

Second, about the substance: Nowhere in Collins' release does she mention that the bill grants retroactive legal immunity to telecom companies that broke the law by violating privacy agreements with their customers, or that the legislation would scuttle a lawsuit against the companies by Maine Attorney General Steven Rowe and a complaint currently before the Maine Public Utilities Commission.

In fact, I don't believe Collins has ever fully explained why huge corporations that spied illegally on their customers deserve get-out-of-jail free cards, or which other business interests she thinks deserve the right to break the law with impunity.

But I'm sure her explanation--assuming we ever get one--will have nothing whatsoever to do with politics.

UPDATE: A statement from Rep. Allen:

As I have stated before, neither the government nor large telecommunications corporations are above the law; everyone must be held accountable. This ‘compromise’ fails to hold either the Bush administration or the telecommunications companies to the same standards that apply to other Americans.

Sunday, June 22, 2008

The Anatomy of a Dodge

When Sen. Collins' failure to investigate corrupt procurement practices first gained traction as an issue in January, the junior senator explained away her inaction by claiming that she didn't want to duplicate the work of others.

In February, her rationale shifted--a spokesman asserted that requests for oversight all the way back to 2003 amounted to a partisan effort by a single overzealous Democrat.

After we debunked that argument, Collins moved on to a third set of justifications: Hearings themselves, she implied, are nothing more than political theatre.

Now that version 3.0 has proven weak, the Collins camp is unveiling its fourth rationalization in a mere six months:

"These misleading claims...have been discredited in the past," Kevin Kelly, Collins' campaign spokesman, said in a statement.
Naturally, no word on what's supposed to have been misleading.

And for the record, we've yet to see even an attempt from the Collins camp to discredit the notion that Collins sat on her hands while Iraq burned, let alone a successful refutation of the charge.

And we've been following the issue pretty closely.

Friday, June 20, 2008

BDN in the Tank

And I don't mean the aquarium. Gerald has the latest bit of nonsense.

Centrism Watch

Spot a newspaper article that calls Sen. Collins a "centrist"? Or a TV news report that labels her a "moderate"? How about a radio broadcast in which she's characterized as a "progressive"?

We want to hear about it.

Obviously, straight news reports will be of most interest. But please get in touch about editorials, op-Eds and commentaries too.

And remember that we also want to hear about political phone calls and mailers all the way up through November.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

What's Appropriate

As we noted earlier today, Sen. Collins' vote in favor of the Military Commissions Act helped secure one of the ugliest and most important legislative victories of the Bush presidency.

The act trampled the constitutional principle of habeas corpus, ignored the separation of powers and granted retroactive immunity for certain kinds of war crimes.

As if to underscore her support for the Bush policy, Collins later refused an opportunity to restore habeas corpus, breaking rather publicly with Sen. Snowe in the process.

So, as Gerald notes, it's particularly rich for the junior senator to turn around and, in the middle of an election campaign, complain about the appropriateness of interrogation tactics at Guantanamo Bay.

As her friend President Bush might say, that accountability moment has already passed.

New Poll: 7 Points

Via Daily Kos and TMB, a new Rasmussen poll is out:

Tom Allen (D): 42 (42) (38)

Susan Collins (R-inc): 49 (52) (54)

Numbers in parenthesis are from 5/14 and 4/1, respectively.

From Rasmussen's analysis:

Senator Susan Collins’ lead in her bid for reelection in Maine continues to fade...

Two months ago Collins led her Democratic challenger Tom Allen by 16 percentage points, but that spread fell to 10 points in May. Now her lead is down to seven points, 49% to 42%, dropping her below 50% for the first time and putting her among the Republican senators at risk this November. Incumbents who poll less than 50% are generally viewed as potentially vulnerable.

Collins' favorability rating has fallen as well for the third month in a row, but she is still is viewed favorably by a substantial majority of Maine voters (65%), down from 70% last month. By a nearly identical number, the incumbent’s unfavorables have risen from 29% in May to 33% now.

[...]

Collins...leads Allen by 14% among men but has just a two-point edge among women voters.

[...]

Among Democrats, Allen’s support has increased to 72% this month, up from 64% in May. Twenty-four percent (24%) still support Collins.

However, when it comes to unaffiliated voters, Collins leads 52% to 34%. These numbers represent a major improvement for the incumbent since last month when the two candidates were tied at 44%.
Well, shows what I know.

UPDATE: An 18 point swing to Collins among independents? That seems like noise, or a sampling error. We'll have to wait till next month to see whether the May or June number is the outlier.

Monday, June 16, 2008

Breaking it Down

It's as clear as ever that the Maine media's near-monolithic view of Sen. Collins as a "moderate" or "centrist"--in the face of strong contrary evidence--stems from something other than garden variety sloppiness.

We took a stab at analyzing the myth's strength and persistence last week. And we've spent more than a year debunking the notion that Collins has been some sort of GOP maverick.

But until now, we've never boiled that case down to its simplest, barest essence. So here it is.

MYTH #1: Sure, Collins sides with President Bush now and then. But she sides with the Democrats just as often.

False. The junior senator has voted with the President 81% of the time.

MYTH #2: The 81% number is misleading. The point is, when it comes to the big issues, Collins routinely stands up to her party and the President.

Well, let's see.

Reasonable people can disagree about what to include in a list of the Bush administration's top legislative priorities over the years. But this is a good place to start:

1. Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq [link]

2. Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 [link]

3. Defeating withdrawal time lines in Iraq supplementals--multiple votes [link]

4. Military Commissions Act of 2006 [link]

5. Confirmation of Samuel A. Alito to the Supreme Court [link]

6. Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 [link]

7. Legalizing warantless wiretapping via Protect America Act of 2007 [link]

8. Medicare Part 'D' [link]

9. No Child Left Behind Act of 2001 [link]

10. Energy Policy Act of 2005 [link]

Other strong candidates include the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005, retroactive legal immunity for telecom companies and the nomination of John Roberts to the Supreme Court.

Now consider: The junior senator voted with President Bush on all of these.

To put her rock-solid GOP credentials in context: Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) opposed the 2001 tax cuts and Medicare Part 'D'. And Sen. Snowe voted for Iraq withdrawal time lines and against the 2003 tax cuts while managing to miss the Military Commissions Act vote.

But when the stakes were highest, President Bush and the GOP got Susan Collins' support literally every single time.

MYTH #3 Even if Collins has cast some party-line votes, it's abundantly clear from her speeches and statements that she's just not a partisan person.

Well, now we're getting into existential territory: If you believe that being a centrist is more about posture than substance--more about what you profess to believe than what you actually do--then okay: Maybe on those terms, Collins is a moderate.

But then the word is meaningless as a political category. And to accept Collins as a moderate on that basis is to accept that the label is more about aura than actions; more akin to an article of faith than an evidence-based conclusion.

Collins-friendly Maine journalists are certainly free to adopt a faith-based approach in the voting booth. But they have an obligation to keep it out of their reporting.


(Footnote: Cynical readers may assume the above list is a cherry-picked assemblage of Collins' Bush-friendly votes rather than a good-faith effort to rank the President's top priorities. I deny this, and encourage such readers to document glaring omissions to the list in comments.

Note, though, that I omitted the Afghanistan use of force resolution and the USA Patriot Act from contention because they were uncontroversial. And I ruled out the administration's Social Security privatization effort because it never congealed into a concrete legislative proposal.)

Sunday, June 15, 2008

Allen: Big Majority, Big Change

Rep. Allen thinks it's 1964 all over again.

Think he's right?

UPDATE: Gerald notices the Maine Sunday Telegram's strange, sort of baffling editorial on the same topic.

The writer deserves credit for organizing the piece around the (sound) assumption that on the issues, Allen is a better fit for Maine than Sen. Collins.

But given the sensible premise, a number of passages are all the more perplexing. None more so than this one:

Allen is asking that Maine voters do something that voters generally don't do: Set aside your feelings for his opponent on a personal level and vote your party and/or your politics...This will be a tough sell.
Forget whether this is correct. (No evidence is produced to support it.) More important: What's left unsaid is that the MST and it's sister publication, the Portland Press Herald, aren't exactly uninvolved parties here.

Their journalistic duty when it comes to covering politics is to deliver citizens the truth about pols and elections, and to explain the stakes.

So in an editorial on the senate race, you'd think seasoned journalists would come down firmly and clearly on the side of issues and substance over personality. But instead, we get this:

Americans tend to put a lot of stock into likability and other candidate qualities that have nothing to do with the issues. This is especially true of the swing voters who decide the tight races.
Okay, perhaps. (No evidence is cited here either.)

But if you're waiting for the part of the editorial where the MST rejects the notion that likability should trump substance, you're waiting in vain.

In fact, instead of using the opportunity to be a truth teller, debunking myths and disentangling fact from spin, the editorial repeats (again, with no evidence) the specious message that Collins has been a "moderate."

To be fair: It never argues in favor of the adolescent idea of politics as a popularity contest. It never suggests that stances on universal health care, soldiers coming home from Iraq and the future of the Supreme Court are less important than whether Collins is, "the opposite of slick."

But in the middle of an unpopular war and economic upheaval, during a time when it's never been clearer that elections have serious consequences, you'd think that anyone paying attention--let alone a prestigious editorial page--would use whatever column inches were available to council strongly against seeing the Allen-Collins race as a referendum on the junior senator's personal popularity.

Maybe that sentiment will be expressed in a future editorial. But--and call me a cynic--I'm not betting on it.

Friday, June 13, 2008

The Big Tent

So, here's something odd and compelling.

Check out this post from the Log Cabin Republicans blog, which places Log Cabin President Patrick Sammon, Sen. Collins and homophobe Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) within smiling inches of each other.

Explains Log Cabin blogger Scott Tucker:

Last night, Log Cabin Republicans hosted a fundraiser in Washington, DC for one of our endorsed Senate allies, Susan Collins (R-ME)...Senator Tom Coburn (R-OK)...surprised the crowd by stopping by to express his support for Sen. Collins.
Surprised? I'll bet. (There's another pic here.)

Coburn, you see, has had some, well, interesting things to say about gays and gay rights over the years.

In the lead-up to his 2004 campaign, he told a Republican group:

The gay community has infiltrated the very centers of power in every area across this country, and they wield extreme power ... That agenda is the greatest threat to our freedom that we face today. Why do you think we see the rationalization for abortion and multiple sexual partners? That's a gay agenda.
Around the same time, he warned of rampant lesbianism in Oklahoma schools.

(He's also called for the death penalty for doctors who perform abortions.)

Coburn explained his presence at Log Cabin event this way: "I always come to a fundraiser for Susan Collins. The Senate needs more people like her, and I’m proud to call her my friend."

So we have to ask: Why does Sen. Collins welcome the support of this dangerous man?

And why does Coburn see Collins' reelection as so important that he's willing to fight for it even if it winds up advancing the "gay agenda" that he thinks is "the greatest threat to our freedom that we face today"?

Finally, what of the Log Cabin Republicans? What kind of train wreck of an organization downplays the the virulent views of someone who longs for the group's political annihilation, and then goes out of its way to boast of its "friendship" with him?

As I said, odd and compelling. But not exactly pretty.

Can't say it reflects well on any of the parties involved.

A Revolution Stalled

Gerald flags yesterday's 5-4 verdict from the Supreme Court rejecting the suspension of habeas corpus and upholding the separation of powers. As Yale constitutional law professor Jack Balkin writes:

Boumediene is further proof, if any were necessary, that the constitutional revolution proposed by the Bush Administration after September 11, 2001 has failed.
It's a revolution that, per Gerald, Sen. Collins worked to advance.

And it may still succeed if the junior senator has her way.

Thursday, June 12, 2008

BBC: $23 Billion Wasted in Iraq

Maine Owl spots a new BBC report about the astronomical toll of waste, fraud and abuse in Iraq war contracting.

Back in 2003, Sen. Collins ignored pleas from many--including Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT)--to investigate war contracting. And while the true cost of her inaction is hard to quantify, the BBC number gives us somewhere to start.

Memo to the Maine press: Keeping your head down to protect your party and the President is a lot of things. But it ain't centrist.

Nonsense Watch

Journalism or mythmaking? Foster's Daily Democrat shows us all how it's done:

Collins has developed a centrist image...She is respected by Democratic colleagues as well as Republican ones, and she has given the Bush Administration the shivers and shakes on more than one occasion.
Naturally, no examples of this shiver-inducing behavior are cited.

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

The "Moderate" Narrative

Three distinct groups of people are responsible for the amazing power and endurance of the "Sen. Collins is a moderate" narrative. And while any discussion of them runs the risk of overgeneralizing, the narrative is potent enough that it's a risk worth taking.

First, there's the GOP noise machine. This includes Collins' senate and campaign staffs; her Republican allies in DC and Augusta; and Republican-friendly pundits, journalists, interest groups and organizations.

These people know full well that Collins has been there for President Bush whenever he's needed her and that she's a reliable Republican when it counts.

But because airing these facts would imperil their interests, supporters downplay the truth and advance the "moderate" narrative to protect Collins politically. (There are, of course, occasional bursts of candor.)

The second group is made up of under-informed progressives: Gore and Kerry-supporting Mainers and others who've been hearing the "moderate" narrative so long that they've come to believe it.

These people will tell you they "like" Susan Collins. Pressed further, they'll tout the junior senator's credentials as (nominally) pro-choice, pro-gay and pro-environmental protection.

But they don't know details, and often aren't interested in them. And because they hear so little in the Maine media that undercuts the established view of Collins, they have little reason to question their impressions--which makes them all the more powerful as narrative proponents.

The last group is the hardest to pin down, which may make it the most important to discuss. Call it the "centrist caucus." This group is made up of politicians, journalists, editorial boards, interest groups and Mainers with a stake--tangible or just intellectual--in the idea of transcending partisanship.

So we're talking about people like New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, a life-long liberal who had no path to power through the Democratic party and so styled himself as a centrist Republican.

We're talking about Human Rights Campaign, which justified its endorsement of the junior senator largely on the basis of a desire to endorse candidates from both parties.

And we're talking about national journalists and pundits who, in an electoral climate extraordinarily favorable to Democrats, are looking for ways to demonstrate their non-partisan credentials by singling out one or two Republicans for praise.

But we're also talking about people who may be your friends and neighbors--unaligned voters who profess to despise the partisan nature of politics.

These people are hungry for politicians who will reject party orthodoxy, but sometimes seem indifferent about the substance of the issues involved. They want a stop to all the bickering, but don't always see the point of taking the time to determine who's right and who's wrong.

These people are less interested in results than in tone. They're driven much less by issues than by posture.

Some of them don't know the truth about Collins' record. Others do, but are willing to overlook it: After all, members of the centrist caucus need someone to champion as an exemplar of their politics.

And with the nation polarized and Republicans in denial, Collins' willingness (occasionally) to at least make the right noises is enough to distinguish her from most of her GOP colleagues.

To Mayor Michael Bloomberg, to Human Rights Campaign, to the Maine press--that's enough to qualify her as a moderate in good standing.


The power of the moderate myth--and the degree to which it's entrenched in Sen. Collins' political narrative--points to the difficulty of Rep. Allen's task in this election.

He needs to first educate Mainers about Collins' record and issues positions and then make the argument against them.

It's not an insurmountable task. But the two-tiered nature of the effort certainly adds to the challenge.

Quote of the Day

From The New York Times:

"This issue whether to extend critical tax incentives right now should be, frankly, a straightforward decision," [Sen.] Snowe said. "This country is in an energy crisis, but by the way Congress acts, you wouldn’t know."
Sen. Collins voted to block the legislation.

Monday, June 9, 2008

What Senate Race?

Number of articles in the Minneapolis-based StarTribune.com from 6/2-6/9 referencing Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN): 25.

Number of articles on the website of the Portland Press Herald from 6/2-6/9 referencing Sen. Collins: 7.

Number of those seven PPH articles focused on the CD-1 House race: 3.

Number of the remaining four articles focused primarily on the Senate race: 1.

Astroturf From Away

Jonathan Kaplan has a funny tidbit:

A non-profit group opposed to a key legislative priority for organized labor has confused Portland, Maine with Portland, Oregon.

"If Tom Allen thinks a private election is the best way to elect himself, why doesn’t he support the same system for working Oregonians?" the group writes on its Web site.

Of course, Democratic Rep. Allen is running in Maine against Sen. Susan Collins, a Republican, who is seeking a third term. Oregon features its own potentially competitive Senate race.

"Just as they don’t know much about hard-working Mainers, they seem to know even less about geography," Carol Andrews, Allen's spokeswoman, said.

Tim Miller, the group's spokesman, said it was a "typo."
Still nothing from Sen. Collins to suggest she has a problem with these jokers.

On the Web

Bill in Portland Maine draws attention to the absence of policy discussion on Sen. Collins' campaign website. It's a topic I've considered tackling for a while. But I kept convincing myself that--surely--more issue detail was just around the corner.

And yet, except for a cursory, backward-looking list of "legislative accomplishments" the site contains virtually no discussion of the challenges facing Mainers and the nation.

That means no policy statement on Iraq. Or on health care. Or the economy, or taxes or education.

It's rather stunning, actually.

Rep. Allen's issues section could certainly use some bulking up. But Bill in Portland Maine is right: Allen's site is positively encyclopedic compared to the junior senator's effort.

Of course, an incisive reporter might wonder whether Collins' decision to forego nuts and bolts discussion signals anything about the nature of her candidacy, or about her priorities in the senate.

Hard Ball

Philip Anschutz, the right-wing billionaire whose GOP-aligned Examiner.com trumpeted the paranoid insinuation that Google was out to get Sen. Collins, owes $143.6 million in back taxes, according to the IRS.

Which is not to say this reflects in any way on the junior senator herself.

But the week after not the first, not the second but the third corporate-backed, anti-union astroturf organization began spending money in Maine to re-elect Collins, it's a reminder that her big money backers are willing to go to great lengths to defend their interests.

Saturday, June 7, 2008

Get In Touch

Have you received a phone call about the Collins-Allen race? How about a piece of mail?

Even if you haven't yet, that's likely to change in the coming months. And when it does, we want to hear from you: E-mail us at the address at right with as much information as possible.

(If you're able to scan a mailer or tape a phone call, so much the better.)

As the race heats up, there's likely to be a lot of questionable "voter education" going on below the media radar--as Maine's recent brush with astroturf suggests. And we'd like to be able to shine some light on the more egregious examples.

But to do that, we'll need your eyes and ears. So please do be in touch.

Friday, June 6, 2008

More Berman

WCSH6.com has the scoop:

An organization called The Center For Union Facts has launched a nationwide television ad campaign attacking labor unions and supporting workers rights. Those ads recently ran on stations here in Maine, including NEWS CENTER.

[...]

The Center For Union Rights is a Washington D.C. Based 501-c3 non-profit organization...President of the Eastern Maine Labor Council, Jack McKay, says the Center is nothing but a front organization for lobbyists who are pro-big business and anti-union interests. McKay says the organization is run by Richard Berman, a notorious lobbyist for the alcohol, tobacco, and fast food industries.

[...]

Collins' Deputy Campaign Manager Felicia Knight issued a written statement addressing the ads.

"Senator Collins' campaign has nothing to do with these ads, which are currently airing in several media markets around the country."
It's one thing, of course, to say that the Collins camp "has nothing to do with the ads."

It would be something else to actually reject Berman's help, or criticize his dishonest, multi-pronged campaign.

UPDATE: From the Berman site FAQ:

"Is this part of a political effort? No. The Center for Union Facts doesn't support candidates for office. We are about education."
Right.

Thursday, June 5, 2008

A Test for Collins

The new Collins-friendly push poll from Richard Berman's anti-union astroturf group presents the junior senator with her first opportunity to stand by her camp's recent pledge to shun support from outside attack groups.

So will Collins repudiate Berman and his slimy tactics? Or will she and her staff sit by silently as the so-called Employee Freedom Action Committee works to malign Rep. Allen?

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Push Poll?

Is a Republican-aligned, corporate-funded astroturf group push-polling Mainers for Sen. Collins' benefit?

It would appear so:

A survey released today by the non-profit Employee Freedom Action Committee (EFAC) revealed that Representative Thomas Allen trailed United States Senator Susan Collins in head-to-head general election match-up. Rep. Allen's prospects are not improved by his support of the misleadingly named Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA) or "card-check" legislation...

His support for card-check made 32% of voters less likely to support him and only 11% more likely to support his candidacy.
So, what exactly is the Employee Freedom Action Committee?

According to Oregon-based Willamette Week, "the group is headquartered in the office of D.C. lobbyist Richard Berman, who has a history of setting up AstroTurf groups for the tobacco and booze industries, as well as anti-union employers."

An internet search for NMB Research, which conducted the poll on EFAC's behalf, returns very few pertinent hits. But Google does turn up this $13,000 payment to NMB from the National Republican Congressional Committee. Go figure.

More on push-polling here.

UPDATE: More on Richard Berman here.

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Alito: The Job Application Memo

(This is the second in our series of posts on Justice Samuel Alito. Read the first here.)

Samuel Alito graduated from Princeton in 1972. After stints as a law clerk and an Assistant U.S. Attorney, he joined the Reagan administration as Assistant to the Solicitor General, where he served from 1981-85. He then applied for the job of Deputy Assistant to Attorney General Edwin Meese.

In a "personal qualifications statement" accompanying his application for the Deputy Assistant job, Alito wrote:

I am and always have been a conservative and an adherent to the same philosophical views that I believe are central to this administration...

In college, I developed a deep interest in constitutional law, motivated in large part by disagreement with Warren Court decisions...

Most recently, it has been an honor and source of personal satisfaction for me to serve in the office of the Solicitor General during President Reagan's administration and to help advance legal positions to which I personally believe very strongly. I am particularly proud of my contributions in recent cases in which the government has argued in the Supreme Court...that the Constitution does not protect a right to an abortion...
(Emphasis added.)

Alito got the job, and served as Deputy Assistant till 1987.

Supporters of Alito's nomination often noted that opposing abortion, as a personal or even political matter, doesn't amount to taking a position on its status under the Constitution. That's plainly correct: One can be against the death penalty, after all, without thinking it's unconstitutional.

But in describing his affinity for the Reagan administration's legal positions above, Alito isn't explaining his personal views. Instead, he's articulating his personal views of the Constitution. His legal views, in other words. And that's a huge difference.

It's especially significant because, at 35, he's writing as a seasoned constitutional lawyer. And because the conclusion he states is simple and unambiguous: That abortion isn't protected by the Constitution. Period.

He's so sure of this, in fact, that he goes out of his way to cite this view as an example of a legal position he holds "very strongly" and the advancement of which he is "particularly proud."

Naturally, to most observers who think the right to an abortion is protected by the Constitution, this was a red flag.

Indeed, The New York Times characterized Sen. Collins' reaction to the memo's public release as follows:

Two other Republican senators who support abortion rights, Olympia J. Snowe and Susan Collins, both of Maine, expressed sharp concerns about the statement.
But the junior senator ultimately voted in favor of the nomination.

Monday, June 2, 2008

AP: Collins Has $4.6 Million in Cash

In a "pre-primary" report that takes us up to May 21, Collins has built up a $2 million cash advantage over Rep. Allen, the Associated Press reports.

Allen: Collins Cryptic on Health Care

In a brisk, substantive speech that repeatedly took on Sen. Collins, Rep. Allen addressed the Maine Democratic Convention on Saturday.

Allen observed that his disagreements with the junior senator are "in plain view" in the legislative record before criticizing Collins for her stances on Iraq, war contracting, economic policy and judges.

When the discussion shifted to health care, he allowed, "I don't have a clue" where Collins stands.

PolitickerME.com has video in two parts here and here.

Saturday, May 31, 2008

Middle School Priorities

Sen. Collins will find time this Friday night to attend the Hodgkins Middle School band concert.

But five years into a bloody, expensive, disastrously-misconceived war and occupation that she helped set in motion and continues to support, it's been more than twelve months--at least as far as we can tell--and possibly much longer since the junior senator has stood before adult Mainers in an open forum.

More on Collins' preference for middle schoolers over voters here and here.

Friday, May 30, 2008

Rasmussen

Facing an electoral drubbing, Republicans are now questioning the accuracy of Rasmussen polls, pointing out that they're automated--conducted via robocall rather than live interview.

As Kos notes, however, automated polls have a pretty good track record as of late.

I don't know enough to have a dog in this fight. But for what it's worth, my gut tells me that the ten point margin in the most recent Rasmussen survey, if anything understates Sen. Collins' advantage.

And so her lead seems more likely to expand than contract in the next survey.

But that's just one guy's gut. We'll have to wait and see.

And Now the Dems

Gerald will be blogging from the Democratic Convention in Augusta today and tomorrow.

Expect coverage at PolitickerME.com as well.

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

An Aside: NARAL

NARAL's poorly-timed endorsement of Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) over Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) earlier this month is exactly the kind of dubious, self-defeating interest group action we counseled against here.

But it's the kind of move that could be repeated in Maine.

To recap: Having made the (correct) judgment months ago that Obama and Clinton were equally strong on abortion rights and related issues, NARAL had no reason to abandon its neutrality while the nomination was still up for grabs--at least no reason related to its mission.

What's more, the endorsement divided abortion rights advocates--as you would have had to expect.

So why go ahead with it at all? Why not wait for Obama to wrap up the nomination and then endorse, in a way that unites Democrats and brings pro-Clinton pro-choicers into the fold?

If you're thinking strictly about advancing the organization's mission, it's not at all clear. If anything, the endorsement looks counterproductive.

So clearly, something else factored in.

And you don't have to be a callous cynic or a political insider to realize that while the cause gains nothing from the endorsement, NARAL as an organization very well might: Increased access to the Obama campaign; perceived clout and influence with Obama's inner circle; entree with Obama donors; etc.

In short, it's not hard to see how a few folks daydreaming about jobs in an Obama administration might be looking for ways to get on the campaign's good side--and as soon as possible. And it's not hard to see how the organization's leadership might salivate at the opportunity to ingratiate themselves with the Obama camp's 1.5 million donors.

Interest group endorsements aren't supposed to work that way. They're not supposed to be about power games and parochial agendas.

Still, it's not hard to see how that kind of thinking could infect the decision-making process.

NARAL and groups like it present themselves as grassroots, mission-based organizations. But that doesn't mean they're always run that way.

And that's something worth keeping in mind when it comes to interest group endorsements and the Maine senate race.