Monday, October 6, 2008

New Dem Poll: Collins +8

The DSCC has a brand new poll out, conducted by the Mellman Group, with the following results:

Tom Allen (D): 41

Susan Collins (R-inc): 49

The poll of 600 likely voters has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

Partisan polls are always worth treating with some skepticism: The DSCC press release doesn't list the survey's partisan weighting or break down any of the demographics. And since the DSCC doesn't release all its polls the way a non-partisan firm would, it's not clear where this fits in with their earlier numbers.

Still, the poll isn't exactly a comfort to Collins. And it helps explain the radio ad that we alluded to yesterday.

Also notable is that the same poll shows a 17 point advantage for Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) in the presidential race (52-35). That number makes at least as much sense to me as the narrow, 4-5 point gap that we've seen in recent public polling.

The implication is that, if Obama winds up with a solid, double-digit win in Maine, the Senate race will be closer than recent independent surveys have suggested.

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