New Poll: Collins +10

Rasmussen has new numbers out, and the big news is that they would seem to corroborate the DSCC result:

Tom Allen (D): 43 (42) (38) (42) (42) (42) (38)

Susan Collins (R-inc): 53 (55) (53) (49) (49) (52) (54)

(Figures in parenthesis represent results from previous months.)

The new numbers suggests that the race has narrowed modestly. But the most salient thing about the poll is something the analysis barely mentions: That the same survey sees only a five point advantage for Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) in the presidential race.

That's a narrower result than almost anyone is predicting, and it suggests Obama has gained virtually no ground since mid-September in Maine--a finding that's hard to believe in the context of the other state and national polls produced during that period.

Now, maybe Obama is up only five points--maybe the race is evolving in Maine in a way that's at a variance with both the national numbers, the new DSCC Maine number (Obama +17) and nearby states like New Hampshire.

But you can be sure that the folks at Collins HQ aren't betting on a tight presidential race to help get them over the line.

If the Rasmussen sample is off--if Obama is really up 10-12 points--it probably means Collins is up mid-to-high single digits, as the Mellman Group poll says.

And that means we may have ourselves a race after all.