Rasmussen has new numbers out, and the big news is that they would seem to corroborate the DSCC result:
Tom Allen (D): 43 (42) (38) (42) (42) (42) (38)(Figures in parenthesis represent results from previous months.)
Susan Collins (R-inc): 53 (55) (53) (49) (49) (52) (54)
The new numbers suggests that the race has narrowed modestly. But the most salient thing about the poll is something the analysis barely mentions: That the same survey sees only a five point advantage for Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) in the presidential race.
That's a narrower result than almost anyone is predicting, and it suggests Obama has gained virtually no ground since mid-September in Maine--a finding that's hard to believe in the context of the other state and national polls produced during that period.
Now, maybe Obama is up only five points--maybe the race is evolving in Maine in a way that's at a variance with both the national numbers, the new DSCC Maine number (Obama +17) and nearby states like New Hampshire.
But you can be sure that the folks at Collins HQ aren't betting on a tight presidential race to help get them over the line.
If the Rasmussen sample is off--if Obama is really up 10-12 points--it probably means Collins is up mid-to-high single digits, as the Mellman Group poll says.
And that means we may have ourselves a race after all.